Minuteman Loss Or Victory?

by Walter Moore

Minuteman Jim Gilchrist will not be rushing to catch a plane to Washington, D.C., today, to start serving as Orange County's newest Congressman. You can, however, nonetheless conclude that Gilchrist won a huge victory -- even if you don't smoke crack.

Gilchrist scored a victory by moving us much closer to the day when a majority of voters have the guts to vote for the best candidate, rather than settling for the proverbial "lesser of two evils." Unfortunately, voters consistently outsmart themselves by voting for candidates they hate. They vote for the less horrible of the two "front-runners," thereby reinforcing the self-fulfilling prophesy that an independent can't possibly win. This vicious cycle encourages the two main political parties to take their members for granted, and discourages anyone but party hacks from running for office. Thanks to Jim Gilchrist, however, we may actually live to see the day where a majority of people in a California election are "stupid" enough to "throw away" their votes by voting for the best candidate.

Consider the numbers. Gilchrist got 25% of the vote (i.e., 23,237 votes), even though his American Independent party constitutes just 2% of the registered voters in his district. So where did he get the rest? Assuming that voter turn-out was essentially the same regardless of party affiliation, the answer is as follows:

Republicans provided 5.3% of Gilchrist's 25%: the Republican candidate got just 44.7% of the vote, even though the party constitutes 50% of the registered voters. In other words, over 10% of the Republicans voting were willing to cross party lines to vote for the candidate they deemed best. Independents provided the remaining 17.7% of Gilchrist's 25%; they constitute 19.1% of the district's registered voters. Democrats, however, did Gilchrist no favors: they constitute 27.1% of the registered voters, and their candidate got 27.96% of the vote -- not much more than Gilchrist.

So what should you make of the numbers?

Well, if you're pessimistic, you can say they prove that only candidates from the two major parties can win. But when is the last time you heard of a third-party candidate getting 25% of the vote in a California election? That's huge. That 25% may encourage, say, another 10% in the next election to vote for the best candidate, rather than the lesser of two evils. Think "snowball effect:" 25% turns into 35% , which emboldens another 10%, and, after a few elections, you could get over 50% of the people actually voting for the best candidate, regardless of party affiliation. You never know till you try. And there will be plenty of opportunities, because there's an election in California every 73 days or so.

The Minuteman did his part. He fought the battle hard, captured some serious political real estate, and survived to fight again. The American Revolution wasn't won in a single battle. And the odds were overwhelmingly against us. Plus, we didn't have snazzy uniforms like the Brits. But we won anyway. Let's remember that when the next election rolls around, and the one after that.